Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 52.5)
In a battle between the league’s highest-scoring teams and the two highest-rated quarterbacks, the Vikings and Saints face off for the NFC Championship in New Orleans’ Superdome.
This is the Saints’ second NFC title game in team history, having lost to Chicago three years ago, 39-14. The Vikings are 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread in conference championships, losing their last four SU and ATS.
Significant injuries
According to the Star Tribune, Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin missed Thursday’s practice due to a migraine.
Migraines caused the star wide receiver to miss a regular-season game six weeks ago and also slowed Harvin the following week.
The two consecutive games in mid-December Harvin missed, were Brett Favre’s two worst (as far as passer rating) of the season.
“[I] expect [Harvin] to be OK,” said Minnesota head coach Brad Childress. “He has to take care of [the migraine]. It’s not something you can fight through.”
Harvin was named the Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year this season and set a team record for all-purpose yardage (2,081).
No place like home
While the Vikings were 9-0 this season at home in the comfy confines of the Metrodome, they have only a 4-4 record on the road and haven’t won an away game in nearly three months.
In their last three road games – losses to Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago – Minnesota was favoured by more than a touchdown on average but lost the three contests by an average of nearly two touchdowns.
The Vikings must perform under the pressure of the Superdome, regarded as one of the loudest and most intimidating environments in the NFL.
“Not only are you playing the Saints, but you’re playing their fans,” said Favre.
Last week, the Superdome crowd was considered the loudest it has been all season and was certainly a factor in New Orleans’ 31-point win over Arizona. This week, Favre and the Vikings can expect it to be even louder.
Run, Adrian, Run
Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson has not rushed for 100+ yards in eight consecutive games after gaining 100 or more in 19 of his first 39 regular-season games in the NFL.
The three-time Pro-Bowler is due for a breakout game, especially considering the last time these two teams played (Oct. 6, 2008) Peterson had one of the worst performances of his career (21 carries, 32 yards).
The Saints’ biggest weakness may be its run defence. New Orleans allowed 122.2 rushing yards per game (21st in NFL) and 4.5 yards per carry (26th) during the regular season.
Establishing the run and riding Peterson would help quiet the raucous crowd and keep Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the explosive New Orleans offence off the field.
Key matchup
Safety Darren Sharper spearheads a Saints secondary that held Kurt Warner in check after he had arguably the best passing performance ever in NFL playoff history the week before against Green Bay.
Statistically, Favre is having the best season of his illustrious, 19-year career; however, the 40-year-old quarterback and his teams have often struggled in the playoffs (4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS since 1997).
If New Orleans’ defence, and end Will Smith in particular, can apply consistent pressure, Favre, as he has demonstrated in past playoff games, may become rattled, force the football into coverage and commit turnovers.
Trends
Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the winning teams of the conference championship games (NFC and AFC) are 66-1 ATS when the line is less than 10 points.
In 38 of the 78 conference championship games, the margin of victory has been 14 points or more.
Minnesota is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS versus New Orleans since 1992; the over is 8-2 in these 10 games.
New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favourite of 3.5-10 points.