LSU Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-2.5, 43.5)
It was New Year’s Day, 1974, the first and only time national powers Penn State and LSU met on the football field. Joe Paterno coached the Nittany Lions to a 16-9 victory over the Tigers and coach Charlie McClendon in the Orange Bowl that day.
Thirty-six years later, JoePa still prowls the sidelines for Penn State while LSU has gone through eight different head coaches since that game. Another poor performance by the Bayou Bengals in this one and they could be looking for No. 9.
Just two years removed from winning the national championship, LSU coach Les Miles’ seat may not be hot but it isn’t as cozy as one might imagine. The Tigers’ three losses this season (to Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss) may seem justifiable, but 9-3 doesn’t cut it in Cajun Country.
A win in the Capital One Bowl would give Miles 10 wins and a sigh of relief during the offseason. A loss to 10-2 Penn State would add fuel to the fire of angry fans who say Miles rode Nick Saban’s coattails to the national title but can’t get it done on his own.
JoePa should be thankful he’s in Happy Valley and not Baton Rouge, otherwise he might be a retired insurance salesman rather than the winningest coach in FBS history. Don’t expect this to be Paterno’s swansong. It will take the Pennsylvania National Guard to get him off the sidelines.
Injury report
LSU is running on empty after losing three running backs this season - Charles Scott, Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy. There’s a slight chance the senior Scott can return in time, but seven weeks isn’t much time for a collarbone to fully heal, especially for a power runner against a hard-hitting defence.
Penn State also will be without a few key players, including running back Brandon Beachum, who injured his knee against Ohio State. Defensive tackle Brandon Ware and linebacker Michael Mauti haven’t played since early in the season, so the Nittany Lions’ defence has had time to adjust.
Weather or not
The forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 60s at kickoff with a 40 percent chance of rain.
Air Jordan?
LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson has failed to live up to the expectations of predecessor JaMarcus Russell (then again, so has JaMarcus Russell) and the Tigers’ offence has struggled as a result. In fact, Penn State holds the edge in virtually every offensive category.
But the talented sophomore may be on the verge of putting it together, just not with the consistency of Penn State senior Daryll Clark, who has thrown for more yards (2,787 to 1,964), touchdowns (23 to 16) and interceptions (10 to 6) and has more experience.
Add that to the fact that LSU is without its top two rushers and Penn State appears to have a real advantage. However, LSU’s defence has the speed and size to matchup with the running back Evan Royster and an excellent secondary to lock down WRs Derek Moye and Graham Zug.
Bowling leagues
OK, time for some more of the great Big Ten vs. SEC debate. But if you look at how the two leagues have fared in bowl games, when the opponent is guaranteed to be at least average, there’s really no argument.
Over the past three seasons, the SEC is 19-7 SU in bowl games while the Big Ten is 6-16. Those numbers include the SEC beating the Big Ten head-to-head in the BCS national championship game, with Florida blowing out Ohio State in 2006 and LSU whacking the Buckeyes in 2007.
The Nittany Lions may be the exception to the Big Ten (tendency to fold) rule. They are 1-1 against the SEC in bowls this decade, including a 13-9 loss to Auburn in their only Capital One Bowl appearance in 2002. LSU is 2-1 in that same span, including a 30-25 loss to Iowa in the 2004 Capital One Bowl.
Coach ‘em up
One of the biggest factors in handicapping the postseason is a coach’s ability to properly prepare his team for a bowl game. With six weeks between games and plenty of holiday distractions, there’s an art to getting a team to peak in time for the new year.
Paterno certainly knows the drill, with a 23-11-1 SU record in bowls. But that number has flat-lined in recent years, going 3-2 in this decade compared to 7-3 in the previous one.
Les Miles may be the hottest bowl coach in the nation if you only consider recent history. The Michigan grad and former Wolverines assistant is 4-0 SU and ATS in bowls at LSU with his Tigers winning by an average score of 40-11 over Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Georgia Tech.
What’s my motivation?
Penn State was in line to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, the Midwest’s version of Valhalla, until falling to Ohio State 24-7. Instead the Buckeyes are Rose Bowl bound and Iowa, which beat the Lions 21-10, plays Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Those scores don’t bode well for Penn State when it comes to big gamesmanship.
But LSU is in the same boat, with a 13-3 loss to Florida and 24-15 defeat to Alabama ending its hopes of an SEC title and a late 25-23 wake-up call from Ole Miss ending its BCS bowl chances. The issue of who wants it more is a matter of pride more so than reward.